FMG Mongolia Fund lost 9.7% in the 1st Quarter

The MSE Top 20 index lost 14% in the quarter in local currency, and on top of this the Mongolian Tugrik depreciated by 3%. Local stocks traded lower throughout the quarter, despite the fact that assets globally were sharply rebounding from the January lows, especially those related to commodities and energy. So yet again Mongolia proved itself a non-correlated asset, but not to the benefit of the fund this time. However, we have historically noted an existence of a time lag in small frontier markets at times. Mongolian assets listed offshore did reflect the change in global sentiment and mostly ended the quarter in the green. At the time of this writing, we have also noticed a sharp strengthening of the Tugrik on the back of a weaker US dollar and sharply stronger prices for key Mongolian exports such as gold, copper and coal. We would not at all be surprised to see MSE listed stocks re-rate in the quarters to come and as a consequence the Fund is close to fully invested. Prime Minister Saikhanbileg also aired the feeling of a positive change to come in a speech, stressing that despite economic difficulties the country is moving forward with a number of key projects to support growth. The most important project is the development of the Oyu Tolgoi mine, run by Turquoise Hill Resources, a core holding of the fund. The full year guidance released in March points to a production of 195,000 tons of copper and 260,000 ounces of gold. However, most of the value will come from the underground stage of the mine and construction is estimated to start in the latter part of 2016. Turquoise is expected to invest around $5 billion in the project, which can be compared to Mongolia’s GDP of $12 billion. Source: Bloomberg